European onshore wind – winning in a new landscape

Whitepaper: outlook 2020

Europe has been an attractive geography for onshore wind installations with cumulative installation of 135 GW by YE2015, out of the total 410 GW wind installation worldwide. Europe is expected to grow towards 2020, reaching 196 GW by YE2020. Although attractive, the growth in Europe has plateaued during the last three years. At the same time, the installation is expected to come from new markets (Turkey, the Netherlands and Greece) in addition to old markets (Germany, France and Italy) with further opportunities emerging in the service markets. Players in the wind value chain need to understand how they should adapt to growing markets, declining markets (with limited new turbine sales) and service markets.

11 countries stand out

Out of the 29 countries in Europe with some sort of presence in wind or plans to participate in the wind market base towards 2020, 11 countries stand out as the main markets towards 2020 based on four factors:

 

  1. Total installed capacity in the country until YE2015
  2. Total capacity out of warranty in the period 2016-20; i.e. the capacity installed in the period 2010-15
  3. New capacity expected to be installed in the period 2016-2
  4. Percentage growth in installation in the period 2016-20

The 11 countries contribute to; a total of 83% of the new turbine sales market. and a total of 86% of the cumulative service market in Europe.

The onshore wind market

Out of these, four countries (Spain, the UK, Sweden and Romania) are pure service markets, while the remaining seven countries (Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Poland, Greece and Turkey) are mixed markets due to substantial new installations as well as a sizeable existing installed base for services. However, Turkey emerges as an exception and would primarily be a new turbine sales market because the future installations (next five years) are projected to be twice that of the existing installed base.

The below figure illustrates the new turbine sales and cumulative service opportunity in the 11 selected countries.

Like to know more?

Then take a closer look at the dynamics that are shaping the demand of the market in our white paper here

or reach out to Thomas, Anders, Henrik or Sidharth